JPMorgan analysts believe Bitcoin could draw more price support than gold if hedging demand in the cryptocurrency ETF (exchange-traded fund) market eases, particularly as short interest in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reaches its highest level of 2026. The insight reveals a divergence in how institutional investors are positioning themselves between the two traditional safe-haven assets, with Bitcoin facing a more skeptical backdrop despite recent inflows.

What's Driving the Difference Between Bitcoin and Gold ETF Positioning?

JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted that IBIT's put-to-call open interest ratio, a measure of hedging activity, runs above that of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD). This suggests heavier hedging around Bitcoin, while short interest in GLD sits below its historical average. The distinction matters because it indicates investors are taking more defensive positions in Bitcoin ETFs compared to gold.

Short interest in IBIT reached 45.9 million shares as of August 31, the highest reading of 2026 and up 23.8% from 37.1 million shares just two weeks earlier. This position equals 3.53% of the fund's float and would require only 0.6 days of average trading volume, roughly 53 million shares, to cover. For context, at the end of March, the short base stood near 13 million shares, marking the year's low.

Both Bitcoin and gold ETFs drew inflows following the Federal Reserve's late-July meeting, when the debasement trade returned as investors rotated into scarce assets amid US fiscal concerns. Bitcoin rallied toward $80,000 while gold approached $4,600 per ounce. However, momentum faded over the past week as inflation-adjusted bond yields rose and the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act in a procedural vote that fell short of the 60 votes needed.

How Are Bitcoin and Gold ETF Flows Comparing in 2026?

The recovery trajectories of Bitcoin and gold ETFs tell different stories about institutional confidence. Gold ETFs have recovered all of their outflows from earlier in the year, while Bitcoin funds have recaptured only about half of theirs. This gap suggests that while both assets benefited from the debasement narrative, gold has regained more institutional support.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced volatile swings in early September. The funds posted $236 million in outflows on September 1 before taking in $731 million on September 3, their strongest day since January, with IBIT alone accounting for roughly $454 million. Net assets across the funds stood at $103.3 billion in early September, representing about 6% of Bitcoin's market capitalization.

Steps to Understanding Bitcoin ETF Hedging Dynamics

• Put-to-Call Ratios: These measure the balance between protective put options and call options in an ETF. A higher ratio indicates more hedging activity, suggesting investors are buying downside protection, which typically reflects caution or skepticism about near-term price direction.
• Short Interest Tracking: Monitoring short positions in major Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT reveals whether institutional investors are betting on price declines. Rising short interest can signal skepticism, but it also creates potential for a squeeze if prices rally sharply.
• Comparative Asset Analysis: Examining how Bitcoin ETF positioning compares to established safe-haven assets like gold helps investors understand whether Bitcoin is gaining or losing institutional credibility as a hedge against economic uncertainty.

"Bitcoin still faces a more skeptical positioning backdrop than gold despite recent inflows and a build-up of futures positioning," noted JPMorgan analysts in their research note.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, JPMorgan

JPMorgan's analysis suggests that if hedging demand eases, Bitcoin could benefit more than gold because the current heavy hedging around Bitcoin ETFs creates a larger cushion for upside surprise. In February, when crypto assets faced pressure, the analysts calculated a volatility-adjusted comparison putting Bitcoin at $266,000, which they described as "an unrealistic target for this year" but one that "shows the upside potential over the long term once negative sentiment is reversed".

The broader implication is that Bitcoin's institutional adoption through ETFs remains in flux. While spot Bitcoin ETFs have grown to represent a meaningful portion of Bitcoin's market capitalization, the hedging patterns suggest institutional investors are still treating Bitcoin with more caution than established alternatives like gold. Any sustained easing of hedging demand could signal a shift toward greater confidence in Bitcoin's role as a long-term store of value.