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Prediction Markets Are Getting Smarter: New Tools Connect Breaking News to Live Odds in Real Time

Two major developments are reshaping how traders access and act on prediction market information. Crypto Briefing has launched Vera, an application programming interface (API) that connects market-moving news to live prediction market odds across thousands of contracts, while BM Wallet has integrated prediction markets directly into its self-custodial wallet, allowing users to forecast real-world events without leaving their crypto storage app.

How Are News and Prediction Markets Being Connected?

Vera, launched by Crypto Briefing, represents a new category of infrastructure for prediction market traders and developers. The API reads thousands of news items daily across geopolitics, crypto, macro, politics, tech, and sports, then pairs each event to the Polymarket contracts it affects and delivers the result to users' data pipelines in near real-time. Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market platform, where users bet on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrency.

The system scans more than 68,000 Polymarket markets and actively tracks over 22,000 at a time, drawing on sources ranging from X (formerly Twitter) and RSS feeds to Truth Social and premium news feeds. When a market is already moving as an event lands, Vera flags it with a momentum tag, a marker that appears on roughly 5 to 10 percent of events and reflects observable price movement rather than a forecast. Over time, the system scores every event against what the market does next, allowing patterns that repeatedly produce noise to fade and the feed to grow cleaner automatically.

The product is aimed at traders, research desks, and developers building bots, agents, or dashboards on prediction market data. Early users can access Vera at a founding rate of $100 per month, with a seven-day trial and the rate locked in for as long as they remain subscribers.

What Does It Mean to Embed Prediction Markets Inside a Wallet?

BM Wallet, a decentralized, self-custodial Web3 wallet, has launched its own prediction markets feature, marking a shift in how users access forecasting tools. Self-custodial means users hold their own private keys and maintain full control of their assets, rather than handing them to a third-party platform. The feature is now available in select regions and debuted with the World Cup as its flagship prediction category, alongside a first-round rewards campaign.

The real innovation lies in the integration. Users can forecast the outcomes of real-world events without ever leaving the wallet, with settlement handled entirely in stablecoin, a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value. There is no extra app to install, no centralized account to register, and no need to swap into a special token in advance. Users simply open BM Wallet, choose a prediction category, and take part directly with their own assets.

Under the hood, BM Wallet taps into Polymarket, bringing its deep liquidity and broad range of markets directly into the self-custodial wallet, with no separate Polymarket account to create and no assets to move out. Once an event's outcome is confirmed, winnings settle automatically to the user's prediction market account in stablecoin, with no manual claims and no waiting on a third party to release funds.

How to Use Prediction Markets While Maintaining Control of Your Assets

  • Stay Within Your Wallet: Open your self-custodial wallet, select a prediction category, and place your forecast directly without downloading a separate app or creating a new account elsewhere.
  • Keep Your Keys: Your private keys remain on your own device throughout the entire process, ensuring you maintain full control of your funds at all times.
  • Receive Automatic Settlements: Once an event resolves, your winnings settle automatically to your prediction market account in stablecoin, eliminating delays and the need to manually claim funds from a third party.
  • Access Diverse Markets: Beyond sports like the World Cup, prediction markets cover crypto, politics, and other real-world events, giving you multiple categories to forecast on.

Coverage extends well beyond sports. Alongside the World Cup, BM Wallet's platform offers categories spanning crypto, politics, and more, turning all kinds of real-world events into on-chain prediction markets.

BM Wallet's broader vision goes beyond prediction markets alone. The platform aims to become a mainstream financial account for Web3, bringing together asset management, trading, spending, and forecasting into a single self-contained ecosystem. The wallet includes a built-in decentralized exchange (DEX), professional trading and analytics tools, and a prepaid card that lets users spend stablecoins at merchants accepting Visa or Mastercard.

The timing of these launches reflects growing momentum in prediction markets as a sector. Prediction markets have become one of the most closely watched areas in crypto, allowing users to put their views on the line by taking positions based on their own read of global sporting events, macro developments, social trends, and more. Historically, participating in prediction markets meant leaving your existing wallet behind, downloading a standalone app, opening an account on a centralized platform, and handing your assets over to a third-party custodian.

The emergence of tools like Vera and wallet-native prediction markets signals a shift toward making prediction market participation more seamless and less reliant on centralized intermediaries. Vera's ability to map news to live odds in near real-time addresses a key pain point for active traders, while BM Wallet's integration removes friction for users who want to forecast without surrendering custody of their funds. Together, these developments suggest the prediction market infrastructure is maturing beyond standalone platforms toward a more integrated, user-controlled ecosystem.