Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market platform in the US, is seeking approval to expand far beyond event contracts into perpetual futures on gold, currencies, and energy. The move would transform the platform from a niche forecasting venue into a direct competitor with CME Group, Nasdaq, Cboe, and Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.

What Is Kalshi Trying to Do?

Kalshi currently dominates prediction markets for sports, politics, and economic events. But the platform is in advanced talks with regulators to expand into perpetual futures, or "perps," which are never-expiring contracts that let traders make ongoing bets on asset prices. The company is targeting three new asset classes: precious metals like gold, foreign exchange (currencies), and energy markets.

"Beyond crypto, the other asset classes that we're looking at are very much driven by the market, for instance, things like gold. Gold is something that's coming up because it's retail friendly. Our participants skew towards the retail side, but also institutional," said Udesh Jha, Kalshi's chief risk officer.

Udesh Jha, Chief Risk Officer at Kalshi

This expansion reflects Kalshi's broader ambition. The platform is eyeing a public listing by late 2027 or early 2028, and diversifying its product suite beyond event contracts could make it a more attractive acquisition or IPO candidate.

How Does This Challenge Wall Street's Dominance?

CME Group has long been the undisputed leader in derivatives trading, with a near-monopoly on futures contracts for commodities, currencies, and financial instruments. Kalshi's push into these markets directly threatens that dominance. The tension is already visible: CME has sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal regulator that oversees derivatives markets, over the agency's decision to allow Kalshi and Coinbase to list perpetual futures.

CME's outgoing CEO Terry Duffy has called the CFTC's approvals a "disaster waiting to happen," arguing that retail traders may not fully understand the risks of perpetual futures, which can result in liquidation if a position moves against the trader. This regulatory clash reflects a deeper shift: crypto-native and fintech platforms are now competing directly with traditional Wall Street infrastructure.

How Do Kalshi and Polymarket Compare Today?

Kalshi and Polymarket are the two largest prediction market platforms globally, but they operate under very different models. Understanding their differences helps explain why Kalshi's expansion matters.

• Regulatory Status: Kalshi is fully regulated by the CFTC and settles trades in US dollars on a centralized exchange. Polymarket operates two versions: a CFTC-regulated US platform and a larger international platform that settles trades in USDC, a stablecoin (a digital dollar pegged to the US dollar) on the Polygon blockchain.
• Volume and Specialization: Combined June 2026 volume across both platforms hit $44.8 billion, with Kalshi accounting for $31.5 billion and Polymarket for $13.3 billion. Kalshi dominates sports betting, accounting for 80% of its volume, while Polymarket leads in politics and world events.
• Market Creation: Kalshi requires formal regulatory approval for every market, limiting selection but adding oversight. Polymarket lets anyone create a market on almost any topic, resulting in thousands of niche and viral markets.
• Funding Methods: Kalshi accepts traditional payment methods like bank transfers, debit cards, PayPal, and Venmo. Polymarket requires USDC or other crypto tokens from a digital wallet.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup illustrated their different strengths. Kalshi's World Cup Winner market drew over $800 million in bets by early July 2026, while Polymarket's version crossed $4 billion by July 8, 2026. Both platforms list hundreds of World Cup contracts, from match outcomes to player props, but Polymarket's larger user base and open market creation model gave it a significant edge in total volume.

What Would Kalshi's Expansion Mean for Traders?

If regulators approve Kalshi's request, the platform would offer retail traders access to perpetual futures on assets traditionally available only through institutional brokers or CME. This could democratize derivatives trading, similar to how Robinhood democratized stock trading. However, it also raises the risks that CME has flagged: retail traders may not fully understand leverage, liquidation mechanics, or the volatility of perpetual futures.

Kalshi's expansion would also reshape the competitive landscape. Currently, Polymarket is Kalshi's main rival in prediction markets. But if Kalshi moves into gold, currencies, and energy, it would compete directly with CME, Nasdaq, Cboe, and Intercontinental Exchange, all of which offer derivatives on these assets. This could fragment the market, with some traders using traditional exchanges and others using crypto-native platforms.

How to Understand Perpetual Futures vs. Event Contracts

• Event Contracts: These are binary bets on a specific outcome. A contract is priced between $0.01 and $0.99 and pays out $1.00 if your prediction is correct or $0 if it's wrong. The price reflects the market's estimate of the probability. Once the event resolves, the contract expires.
• Perpetual Futures: These are never-expiring contracts that track the price of an underlying asset, like gold or a currency pair. Traders can hold them indefinitely, and they're typically leveraged, meaning you can control a larger position with a smaller amount of capital. If the price moves against you, you can be liquidated.
• Risk Profile: Event contracts have capped risk; you can only lose what you invested. Perpetual futures can result in losses exceeding your initial investment if you use leverage and the market moves sharply against you.

Kalshi's current business model relies on event contracts, which generated over $1.5 billion in annualized revenue as of May 2026. The company's latest valuation reached $22 billion in its Series F funding round in May 2026, compared to Polymarket's roughly $8 billion valuation after Intercontinental Exchange's $2 billion investment in March 2026. Expanding into perpetuals could unlock new revenue streams, but it also exposes Kalshi to regulatory and competitive risks.

The outcome of Kalshi's regulatory request will signal whether the CFTC is willing to let crypto-native platforms compete directly with traditional derivatives exchanges. If approved, it could accelerate the shift toward decentralized and fintech-driven financial infrastructure. If rejected, it would reinforce the regulatory moat that protects CME and other traditional exchanges from crypto competition.